There will come a time in everyone’s life when they will choose to stop working and must determine how much income they’ll require from their retirement savings. 
每個人生命中都會迎來這個時期——要選擇停止工作并確定養老金會帶來多少收入。

Those who are fortunate will have a large nest egg to draw from and can live comfortably and without worry. But that’s not true for everyone.
幸運的人會有一大筆養老金,可以高枕無憂,但并非人人如此。

These days, people are living longer and may need income for 25, 30, or even 40 years. How much money does a retiree need to save?
現在的人更長壽,可能要領25、30甚至40年養老金,退休人員要攢多少錢呢?

Is $500,000 enough?
500,000美元夠嗎?

For many people, that total may not be sufficient. But the right investment portfolio could provide enough income to get you by.
對很多人來說,這個總數可能不夠,但選對理財產品就能保證你安度晚年了。

Let’s assume that a person is receiving about $17,000 annually from Social Security, which is roughly the average payment for those receiving benefits today. 
我們假設一個人每年從社保領17,000美元,大概是現在養老金的平均數額。

The rest of their annual income must come from their investment portfolio of $500,000. 
其余的年收入來自500,000美元的投資收益。

That means that they will need to pull in about $33,000 from their investments just to earn $50,000 in their first year of retirement.
這就意味著退休第一年想要有50,000美元的收入,他們投資收益大約要有33,000美元。

We should assume that inflation will cause income needs to rise, so the retiree’s investment portfolio needs to increase as well. 
我們要假設通貨膨脹會導致收入需求的增長,所以退休人員的投資收益也要隨之增加。

Thus, it’s important to have a portfolio that can protect your savings while also allowing it to grow faster than your annual withdrawals. This means finding the right balance between stocks and fixed income investments. 
因此很重要的是要找到一個既能保護你的積蓄,又能保證收入增速超過年消費增速的理財產品,這意味著要在股票和固定收益類投資之間找到一個平衡。

Keep in mind that most financial advisors recommend following the “four percent rule” regarding the withdrawals on accounts.
你要記住大部分投資顧問提到賬戶提款時都會給出下面的“百分之四原則”。

This guideline suggests that to ensure retirement savings will last for the rest of their lives, they should not withdraw more than 4 percent of their income on an annual basis.
這個指導原則建議你為了保證退休金能讓你安度晚年,每年取款錢數不能超過收入的4%。

With $500,000 in savings, most investors will be forced to either violate the four percent rule or live on a very small income.
大部分投資者有500,000美元的存款也會被迫要么違反百分之四的原則,要么靠很少的收入維持生活。

Let’s examine 2 possible investment portfolios of $500,000 and a look at the potential income.
我們來看兩組500,000美元可以買的理財產品以及潛在的收入。

 

20/80 
20/80投資方案

(20 percent equities and 80 percent fixed income.)
(20%買股票,80%買固定收益理財產品。)

10 percent US Equities
10%買美國股票

10 percent International Equities
10%買國際股票

10 percent U.S. Treasuries
10%買美國國債

15 percent Global Bonds
15%買全球債券

15 percent Corporate Bonds
15%買公司債券

5 percent Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
5%買通貨膨脹保值債券

10 percent Mortgage-backed securities
10%買按揭證券

20 percent Cash and CD
20%持有現金和活期存款

5 percent Other bonds
5%買其他債權

In this scenario, 20 percent of an investor’s portfolio would be placed into equities, with the other 80 percent invested in fixed income. 
這個方案中,投資者收益的20%投到股票上,剩余80%用于投資固定收益的產品。

The equities would be in a basic S&P 500 index fund or similar investments designed to mirror the movement of the overall stock market. The fixed income investments would be largely comprised of bonds, with some cash and CDs.  
股票是標準普爾500指數基金或類似的投資產品,要能反映整個股市的走勢。固定收益的投資中大部分是債券,還有一些現金和活期存款。

With this much money placed in fixed income securities, a person’s portfolio would be reasonably protected against a bad stock market crash. However, this portfolio might struggle to generate the kind of income the retiree needs.
大部分錢放在固定收益的投資中,個人收益就會得到合理的保護,以免遭遇糟糕的股市暴跌。然而這筆收益產生的收入勉強夠退休者所需。

Doug Amis, the owner and CEO of Cardinal Retirement Planning, notes that between 1926 and 2017, a 20/80 portfolio generated an average annual return of 6.7 percent. That’s barely above the withdrawal rate needed to produce the necessary $33,000 and investors with shorter time horizons may see lower returns.
卡迪納爾退休計劃的老板兼首席執行官Doug Amis指出,1926年-2017年間20/80的投資方案創造了年均6.7%的回報率,剛剛超過要賺到所需的33,000美元的提款比率,短期投資者的收益會更少。

This portfolio could work, Amis says, but “it’s not what we would recommend based on future expected returns.”
Amis說這個方案有用,但“基于未來預期收益我們并不建議這種投資”。

 

50/50
50/50投資方案

(50% equities and 50% fixed income)
(50%買股票,50%買固定收益的投資產品)

25% U.S. Equities
25%買美國股票

25% International Equities
25%買國際股票

20% U.S. Treasuries
20%買美國國債

10% Global Bonds
10%買全球債券

10% Corporate Bonds
10%買公司債券

15% Cash and CDs
15%持有現金和活期存款

Amis says a better portfolio would place involve placing half of the funds in equities and the other half in fixed income. 
Amis說,更好的理財產品要用一半資產買股票,另一半買固定收益的投資產品。

The equities could be placed in a combination of U.S. equities, along with stocks and funds focused on international and emerging markets. 
股票包括美股和以國際和新興市場為主的股票和基金。

Research from Vanguard suggests such a portfolio has generated an average annual return of 8.4 percent over time. That would bring about $42,000 in annual income the first year and give the retiree some extra cushion and allow some accommodation for inflation.
領航投資(先鋒集團)的研究表明長期做這樣的投資能產生年均8.4%的收益,第一年年收入約為$42,000,退休者能有一些額外存款并抵消通貨膨脹帶來的損失。

However, it’s key to note that the additional equity does bring some additional risk.
然而值得注意的是額外的股票的確會增加風險。

A 50/50 portfolio lost money in 17 of 92 years between 1926 and 2017, compared to 12 down years for the 20/80 portfolio.
50/50的投資方案在1926年-2017年的92年間有17年是賠錢的,相比之下20/80的投資方案有12年賠錢。


翻譯:菲菲